Stability and contagion measures for spatial extreme value analyses

A publicar em Kybernetica
(preprint - http://arxiv.org/abs/1206.1228)

As part of global climate change an accelerated hydrologic cycle (including an increase in heavy precipitation) is anticipated. So, it is of great importance to be able to quantify high-impact hydrologic relationships, for example, the impact that an extreme precipitation (or temperature) in a location has on a surrounding region. Building on the Multivariate Extreme Value Theory we propose a contagion index and a stability index. The contagion index makes it possible to quantify the effect that an exceedance above a high threshold can have on a region. The stability index reflects the expected number of crossings of a high threshold in a region associated to a specific location i, given the occurrence of at least one crossing at that location. We will find some relations with well-known extremal dependence measures found in the literature, which will provide immediate estimators. For these estimators an application to the annual maxima precipitation in Portuguese regions is presented.