Minimizing epidemic final size through social distancing
27/10/2021 Wednesday 27th October 2021, 16:00 (Room P3.10, Mathematics Building)
Pierre-Alexandre Bliman, Inria and Laboratoire Jacques-Louis Lions, Paris
How to apply partial or total containment measures during a given finite time interval, in order to minimize the final size of an epidemic - that is the cumulative number of cases infected during its course? We provide here a complete answer to this question for the SIR epidemic model. Existence and uniqueness of an optimal strategy is proved for the infinite-horizon problem corresponding to control on an interval $[0,T]$, $T\gt 0$ (1st problem), and then on any interval of length $T$ (2nd problem). For both problems, the best policy consists in applying the maximal allowed social distancing effort until the end of the interval $[0,T]$ (1st problem), or during a whole interval of length $T$ (2nd problem), starting at a date that is not systematically the closest date and that may be computed by a simple algorithm. These optimal interventions have to begin before the proportion of susceptible individuals crosses the herd immunity level, and lead to limit values of that proportion smaller than this threshold. More precisely, among all policies that stop at a given distance from the threshold, the optimal policies are the ones that realize this task with the minimal containment duration. Numerical results are exposed that provide the best possible performance for a large set of basic reproduction numbers and lockdown durations and intensities.
Details and proofs of the results are available in [BDPV,BD].
This is a joint work with Michel Duprez (Inria), Yannick Privat (Université de Strasbourg) and Nicolas Vauchelet (Université Sorbonne Paris Nord).
[BDPV] Bliman, P.-A., Duprez, M., Privat, Y., and Vauchelet, N. (2020). Optimal immunity control by social distancing for the SIR epidemic model. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10957-021-01830-1
[BD] Bliman, P. A., and Duprez, M. (2021). How best can finite-time social distancing reduce epidemic final size?. Journal of Theoretical Biology 511, 110557. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022519320304124